There have been a number of well-known information
security personalities who have been publicly saying that the revelations the
capabilities of national governments to undertake wholesale surveillance of the
Internet will lead to its Balkanization.
If you believe the hype, the Internet will fragment and become less well
connected as we all pull back in fear of everyone else's big brother.
I just don't believe it.
There are two really good reasons why this won't happen.
Firstly, all evidence suggests that we really don't mind
about mass surveillance. In 2006 the
United Kingdom was described as being the most surveilled country among the
West. Since 2001 the USA has spent
untold billions conducting illegal electronic surveillance on its own citizens,
as well as doing its best to have a live packet capture of the entire
Internet. In a Western democracy, if we
don't like what the government is doing, we can vote them out. Not only have we not voted them out, we have
year-on-year given them even more power.
This is not to say that these are good things, nor that
one day we might say that enough is enough and reel the power back in, but it
isn't going to happen in 2014, and may not happen for another generation.
Secondly, the Internet really is trans-national, and
outside the control of any one country.
It was originally designed by the technical elite, without any
consideration of governance. It is now
run primarily for the benefit of the business elite, who don't want governance
as it may get in the way of their business models. Any attempt to Balkanize the Internet, or set
up controlling choke points will be worked around using both technical and
business controls. It is far too late to
be trying to set up Internet borders and passport security.
This on the other hand is generally a good thing. All the repressive regimes on the planet have
done everything they can to limit Internet access, and they have universally
failed. The smarter ones have moved back
to surveillance rather than control.
Within the next year or so, I strongly predict that the
Internet will go through a phase-change from default clear-text to default
encrypted, and the state security agencies will wring their hands and weep into
their budgets. But the rest of us will
get on with our lives and use the Internet for what it was designed - porn and
funny cats.
Phil Kernick Chief Technology Officer
@philkernick www.cqr.com